I was interested to read the alleged remarks of
Spain’s monarch, King Juan Carlos, when back in 1983 he stated that his country
didn’t really want Gibraltar as it would lead to Morocco demanding both Ceuta
and Melilla.
Since then of course Morocco has toughened its stance
on the Spanish enclaves. Rabat now considers them as integral parts of the
Moroccan nation using similar language to Spain over Gibraltar. The Moroccan
Government stamps its foot when Spanish Royals or major political figures visit
Ceuta or Melilla just as Madrid would if UK Royals or say the Prime Minister
should come here. The only difference is that Spain totally ignores Moroccan
protests whilst the Foreign Office shakes in fear.
Gibraltar Español is a hangover from Franco’s day. The
Partido Popular and the Francoists in its midst clasp it to their hearts. PSOE
and other parties do to an extent but rather from fear of being dubbed
unpatriotic by the PP if they don’t rather than out of any real conviction.
Gibraltar Español is a key stone of the current
Spanish Government’s foreign and indeed domestic policy. But why? One has to
assume that Rajoy and Margallo are not stupid (but I could be wrong here) and
when the UK and Gibraltar Governments say “no surrender” they know we mean just
that.
Surely this is understood in Madrid or is it?
Now if we take the Spanish King at his 1983 word: is
all the huff and puff from the Partido Popular Government in Madrid no more
than that? Do Rajoy and Margallo really know they won’t get Gibraltar back but believe
they have to pretend they want it, even if they really don’t?
It is certainly true that if Gibraltar became Spanish,
which it won’t, but if it did then the call for the handing over of Ceuta and
Melilla to Morocco would be deafening.
I had always presumed that Gibraltar would have been
Spain’s bargaining chip back in the days when Governments decided people fates
and not the people themselves. However thankfully the world has since moved on
and Gibraltar cannot be traded in exchange for Ceuta and Melilla as it may have
been then in the interests of some geopolitics.
Another question is would Madrid be happy to win back
a small Rock and let go of Ceuta and Melilla, which cover far larger areas and
are two integral provinces in the Spanish nation? The people are Spaniards and
have MPs in Madrid. It seems unlikely even if it was possible, which it isn’t.
So what is going on in Madrid’s current stance on
Gibraltar? Is it all grand standing in the sure knowledge that the Rock will
always be Gibraltarian if not British for ever? Is it a diversion against the
problems being faced by the Spanish? If that is the case the diversion has led
up a dead end street? Rajoy and Margallo may be idiots but the Spanish people
are not. Is it a warning to Cataluña over what could happen there if it breaks
from Spain? Why is Spain using clearly
illegal methods under EU and international law to try and crack the Gibraltar
nut: attempts it knows are doomed to failure?
Who knows? I certainly don’t but perhaps 30 years on
from his first utterances on the matter the Spanish King could kindly tell us.
