The
decision of the former Supreme Leader to stand down as leader of the GSD and
opposition comes as no surprise to anybody. If there is a surprise it is that
he stayed on so long. On purely human terms if you have been chief minister for
four consecutive terms, no mean achievement, why would you want to spend a
fifth term leading the troops you led to defeat on the opposition benches. No
it is better to be off and to spend more time with your family.
However
that is not what has happened. The former Supreme Leader has stood down as
party leader and leader of the opposition but will still draw his pay although
it appears he intends to be just a token MP. It is a role that our constitution
does not really allow for. Either you are elected to government and become a
minister or you are on the opposition benches and are a shadow minister.
Sitting around, popping in if you feel like it, taking your salary has not been
previously on the agenda.
When
the voters elect their MPs they expect them to serve. They serve either in
government or in opposition. The role of an MP who just collects his dosh has
not been envisaged by either Gibraltarians or the rules that govern our
parliament.
Now
it is unlikely the GSD will push Caruana out. It would mean a by-election that
the party might not win. In all probability the GSD is still in awe of the
former Supreme Leader so his former cabin boy Daniel Feetham would probably
only shove if he wanted a replacement in his own image and likeness - like the
brother.
The
GSLP Liberal coalition is unlikely to press the point either. Having Caruana in
parliament serves them well. It reminds the voters of who led the previous four
administrations, it gives the GSD no chance to move on, Caruana is there when
needed for when further chickens come home to roost and they can point to
Caruana in opposition doing what he did in government – using the public’s
money as if it was his own.
Hence
it falls to the PDP to hound Caruana until he goes. It allows the unelected
party to take the high moral ground and campaign on what an abuse to our
parliamentary system the former Supreme Leader’s presence in elected chamber
is. If the campaign is intense enough it may well result in his departure to
his allotment in Sotogrande.
Once
he is gone it leaves the PDP with the real first chance of winning a seat in
parliament. In a straight fight with the GSD, and if they put up a candidate
loved by the GSD diehards, they could find the reward is an MP. Then at the
next election the centre right vote is up for grabs. This would certainly be
the case if the GSLP Liberal coalition did not contest the seat.
The
government already has its full slate of MPs but I am led to believe there is
nothing to stop them adding an eleventh in a by-election. There are certainly
those in both governing parties who would argue if there is an election they
should contest it. However given that this election could lead to a fatal split
in the GSD ranks by leaving its supporters free to back the PDP that might be
the preferred option.
Of
course this is all theory. It will only become fact if the PDP hounds Caruana
out of his cosy seat and then mounts a strong challenge. It remains to be seen
if the party, born of a rupture in centre right politics, can leave its comfort
zone of just issuing wrist slapping press releases and join the political big
boys (and girls). The signs so far are not encouraging.
