I believe there are two sets of candidates in this
by-election: those who are in it to win and those who are standing more in hope
than in expectation.
In the first camp is Albert Isola, who is standing to
replace the late lamented Charles Bruzon. The GSLP naturally hopes that Isola
will retain Bruzon’s seat and if he does I believe he will bring added even
exceptional talents to the government. Also in this camp I put Nick Cruz
because I suspect he believes he has the ability to win even if the reality is
he may have to settle for second. Ironically a victory for Isola and second for
Cruz would mark them both down as winners. Interestingly those I have spoken to
say that is how they rated them after the Caleta Chamber dinner.
In the second group are the GSD who had they been wise
would never have been in the race in the first place. However they are so their
objective has become not to snatch a GSLP seat but to stop themselves being
shoved in to third (or even fourth) place. Bryan Zammit the Second is the rank
outsider but he wants to heighten his profile. I have no trouble with that: a
man can not live by pizza alone.
As Danny Feetham learnt before with his short spell as
Labour leader breakaway parties usually go unelected and hence have a hard time
of it. However the party that Keith Azopardi built and Nick Cruz now leads has
a genuine chance not so much to be elected but to force itself into the mainstream
political arena.
If the PDP can put up a good showing in this election
and push the GSD in to third place then at the next election, when a full slate
of seats are up for grabs, we could well see PDP MPs in Parliament: they may
even form the Opposition.
Cruz has already shown he understands the right
strategy for this election with his statement on the government’s budget which
was largely supportive. Of course he will set down how the PDP would govern
differently from the GSLP and Liberals, he will offer constructive criticism,
but his real task is to persuade GSD voters that their home is now with his
party and not that of Feetham. He has to tackle the GSD head on.
There is only one result that will save Feetham and
that is for the GSD to win Charles Bruzon’s seat. If they come second Feetham
will have failed at his first fence. If the GSD comes second with the PDP
breathing down its neck alarm bells will ring in the party’s ranks. If the PDP
come second it could spell the beginning of the end of Feetham’s hold on power.
In this election the PDP has everything to win and the GSD everything to lose.
I have a soft spot for the PDP and have written here
before about my admiration for how in the past they have engaged in community
politics. I have to say I believe the PDP is miles from being a party of
government and in many ways the party organisation has been woeful – they could
learn a lot from the old unelected GNP-Liberals. None-the-less with a new
leader they have a new opportunity and could yet become the new GSD.
As always it will be for you, the voters, to decide.
