Last week was not a
good one for Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. First there was the train
disaster in his native Galicia and second he has been ducking and diving over
his involvement in the Barcenas corruption scandal. Then to make matter worse a
letter was placed on his desk.
After months of
speculation over the independence referendum in Cataluña, which Rajoy’s
Government bitterly opposes,the region’s bid for self-determination is now
formally on the table.
The Catalan president
Artur Mas has written to Rajoy seeking to open the negotiations on an accord
that would see Cataluña hold its referendum. Of course Rajoy knows well enough
what Mas plans but it is only now it has been put in writing. That being the
case Madrid will now have to make a formal response.
The scenario threatens
to put the Spanish State in direct conflict with the Catalan Parliament whose
MPs have voted by a majority to hold a referendum on independence. Indeed it was
the central issue in the recent Cataluña general election with voters giving
the go-ahead.
Although Cataluña has
always had ambitions to be independent the current crisis started after a
breakdown of talks between the Spanish and Catalan governments over a fiscal
pact last autumn. As a result Mas now has a mandate to call the referendum as
soon as possible.
Mas has called for
immediate talks with the Spanish Government to open a dialogue and to negotiate
an accord by which the people of Cataluña can celebrate the referendum as soon
as possible with all the marks of legality.
Mas in his letter
talks of the coming referendum in the UK which will see the people of Scotland
asked whether they wish to remain in the Union or not. The Catalan leader sees
distinct similarities between the two cases and of course in the UK the
referendum process has been allowed by the British Government.
A number of other
countries have also followed this path including some in the EU. Mas has called
for the Catalan problem to be solved in the same way by the democratic will of
the people in a legally binding referendum.
All of this helps
Gibraltar in a number of ways. First with the Catalans in open conflict with
Madrid and a referendum held either legally, or more likely illegally, then the
Spanish Government’s eyes will swivel east rather than south. Second other
Spanish regions are likely to be emboldened by the Catalans to seek new
relationships of their own with the State be they full independence or fuller
autonomy. In other words we will start to see the disintegration of the Spanish
State. Third, if the Spanish State is breaking up – with its components seeking
the same rights and status as Gibraltarians – then Madrid also loses any
pretence to a right to sovereignty over us.
What is currently a
battle of views and words could soon ignite in to something more akin to what
is being witnessed in Egypt and Turkey. There could be open protests and riots
on the streets in Cataluña over the independence referendum and in wider Spain
against the economic crisis and corruption. Elements in the Spanish armed
forces have already hinted at intervention to preserve the State. A time bomb
is ticking.
In the meantime whilst
Britain’s staunch defence of Gibraltar is welcomed and is the corner stone of
our security: it is events in Barcelona and not London that could be our eventual
deliverance.
