Leaving
the issues of the Treaty of Utrecht and sovereignty aside the most important
decision that may have to be faced by Gibraltar in the coming years is will it
remain a member of the EU?
Ironically
Gibraltar is a member of the EU solely by virtue of the UK’s membership.
Gibraltar will cease to be part of the EU if the British Government withdraws.
Gibraltarians should have a vote in any UK referendum on the issue but its
20,000 votes are unlikely to swing the decision one way or the other. What is
more if Gibraltar votes to stay in and the UK votes for pulling out: the Rock
is out.
Britain’s
continuing membership is vital for our Financial Centre and the Financial
Centre is vital for the future financial stability and independence of
Gibraltar. In the Budget debate, Gilbert Licudi, the Financial Services
Minister spoke of exploring new emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India,
and China, the so called BRIC countries, which are enjoying massive economic
growth. This he pointed out was particularly relevant as Gibraltar can offer
them an alternative entry point into the European single market. Or it can if
the UK remains in the EU.
So what if Britain withdrew?
One of the first persons I asked was Marc X Ellul in his role as chairman of
the Association of Trust and Company Managers. His response was short but
sweet: “I consider it to be something which will not
ever happen.” I mention what he said because in part I agree with his view:
however the job of government is about planning not only for what will happen
but also for what might not happen.
My personal view
is also that withdrawal is unlikely. All recent UK Governments have been
pro-Europe even the Conservative euro sceptic ones. Tories might moan about
Brussels but when it comes down to it bitching and pulling out are two
different things. Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague was interviewed by
Andrew Marr on the BBC recently just after his boss David Cameron had made his
widely reported time for a referendum comments. It was clear Hague believes
Britain’s place is firmly within the EU.
The scenario for
Britain’s withdrawal comes at the next election. The Conservatives now cut
adrift from the Liberals against Labour know that the British public favour a
referendum on withdrawal. Hence it makes sense to a euro sceptic party to
include in its manifesto a commitment to hold an ‘in or out’ referendum. Cameron
will be desperate to carry the euro sceptics with him for they have nowhere
else to go except to UKIP which could steal enough votes or seats to usher in a
Labour or Labour – Lib Dem coalition. I believe any future Tory - Lib Dem deal
is dead in the water.
So Britain could
have a Conservative Government (or even a Tory – UKIP coalition) where an “in
out” referendum is granted to the clamouring masses. Given that the Murdoch
press and other media such as the Express and Mail will campaign for pulling
out that is indeed the way things may go.
Britain and
Gibraltar pull out: what then for our Financial Centre? My first port of call
was the Financial Centre itself who sent me to Stuart Green for comment. He
told me: “The finance centre has been
built on the basis of access to the EU internal market. The implications of the
UK departing from the EU would depend on the arrangements that would then be
put in place between the UK and the EU upon the UK’s exit.” Basically Stuart’s
comments leave us none the wiser but hint at pending doom if the arrangements
are not in our favour.
Next stop was Emma Perez who apart from being CEO of SG Hambros is
president of the Gibraltar Banker’s Association. I caught her on the hop but
she told me: “The first things that spring to mind however would be
the loss of passporting capabilities for Gibraltar Banks into EU and also the
implications which could arise vis a vis EU directives which would therefore
not be applicable.” This ability to passport into the EU of course is what
Minister Licudi is basing his entire BRICS strategy on.
Finally I spoke to
James Lasry who is Chairman of Gibraltar Funds and Investments Association. He
stated: “Gibraltar is firmly within the EU and its legislative framework and it
has positioned itself over the last decades to maximise its position within
this context. It would be difficult to conceive of Gibraltar not being within
the Union. The funds and investment industries take full advantage of the
passporting rights afforded to EU members.”
Yes James, but is
there life for the Finance Centre after EU death by withdrawal? His answer is
positive. He continued: “Having said this, if Gibraltar were to cease to belong
to the Union, its infrastructure and experience could be reapplied to use in non-European
contexts such as in the cases of the Channel Islands."
Marc X Ellul believes
the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is unlikely, and I agree, but at least we have
the reassurance of James Lasry who believes our Financial Centre still has a
strong future based on the Channel Islands model. The success of Gibraltar’s
financial sector and our very economy will depend our ability to adapt to a
sound “in or out” strategy.
