DIVIDE AND RULE

Divide and Rule has been a strategy used by governments and their ambassadors since Roman times when it was known as ‘divide et impera’: divide and conquer is another variation.

The statement by the Spanish Ambassador to the Court of St James, Federico Trillo, is another typical example of this ancient ploy. The centre right Partido Popular government, stung by its Conservative led coalition counterpart in London refusal to enter in to bilateral talks on Gibraltar, is bent on causing mischief.

This year David Cameron has made the strongest statements ever by a British Prime Minister on the right of Gibraltar to self determine its own future whilst also insisting no talks would be held with Spain without Gibraltar’s agreement.

He is not alone. Cameron’s words have been echoed by both the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, and his Minister for Europe, David Lidington. So either these members of the British Government are involved in the biggest deception towards Gibraltar ever or Federico Trillo is being mischievous (but may be not totally lying).

I do not believe the British Government is deceiving Gibraltar for one very simple reason that has nothing to do with the Rock: the Falklands. London sees direct linkage between Argentina’s claim to the Malvinas and Spain’s insistence on the Gibraltar Español dogma. Hence when London proclaims “no surrender” it means it because the Falklands is sitting on liquid gold and is a handy staging post to extract valuable mineral deposits in the South Pole region. Give way on Gibraltar and you loosen your hold on the Falklands. You didn’t believe it was about democracy did you?

I did however say that Trillo might not be totally wrong. Trillo is an ambassador and not a politician. Hence it is quite possible that he is involved with bilateral shenanigans with his opposite number in Madrid or indeed Mandarins at the Foreign Office. In the world of diplomacy anything could be going on and I doubt whether even Cameron or Hague are aware of it. Yes Minister still rules ok?

There is a valid view that says that the Gibraltar Government should demand Trillo withdraws his statements but I am not sure if that is productive or not. It might just give the wily ambassador more scope for mischief. He may be testing the water, Spanish waters of course, to see what disquiet he can cause. Also should we throw a rock at him every time he pops his head over the wall and shouts Gibraltar Español or simply ignore him?

At the end of the day it is for London to deny there are any bilateral talks going on and to restate its position on Gibraltar. Also if Cameron and Rajoy or Hague and Margallo meet and the Spanish side raises Gibraltar that is bilateral – even if Britain restates its stout defence of the Rock’s interests and right to self determination.

There has to be trust between No 10 and No 6 and I believe that exists. I do not believe that Cameron or Hague are out to stab Picardo or Gibraltar in the back. I know they are politicians but I do believe the British Government’s staunch defence of Gibraltar’s right to self determination for the reasons I have already stated.

So Trillo will try and destabilise that trust: and is he talking bilaterally over fino and chorizo to Whitehall Mandarins in a Knightsbridge tapas bar? Probably.

IS IT TIME FOR ANOTHER REFERENDUM?

Is it time for Gibraltar to have another referendum on its future status? I ask the question because next year the Falkland Islands will do just that with Britain promising to honour whatever outcome is voted on. It has to be said that in both the case of Gibraltar and the Falklands the view of the people would be to remain British so London doesn’t have much to worry about.

A Gibraltar referendum in 2013 would be appropriate because it is also the tri-centenary of the sign of the Treaty of Utrecht. Under the terms of that battered old treaty Spain ceded Gibraltar to the British Crown in perpetuity and not as many in Madrid currently believe to when Franco or the Partido Popular were or are in power.

The British Prime Minister, David Cameron, raised the referendum at the G20 summit after a diatribe from the Argentine President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, demanding talks on the future of the Falklands/Malvinas. He stated that in this post colonial age the rights of the people of the Falklands were paramount and whatever they decided in their referendum should be respected.

Following the announcement by the Falklands Government that it was organising the referendum David Cameron stated that it was “absolutely right” that the islanders made their voices heard over their future. He added: “And Britain will be resolute in supporting their choice.”

Cameron continued: “Next year’s referendum will determine beyond doubt the views of the people of the Falklands. Britain will respect and defend their choice.  We look to all UN members to live up to their responsibilities under the UN charter and accept the islanders’ decision about how they want to live.”

Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague reinforced Cameron’s words stating: “I hope very much that Argentina, and indeed the whole of the international community, joins the UK in listening carefully to what they have to say.”

Gavin Short is the Chairman of the Falkland Islands’ legislative assembly and said they were holding the referendum about their future “to show the world just how certain we are about it”.

“I have no doubt that the people of the Falklands wish for the islands to remain a self-governing overseas territory of the United Kingdom.”

Well the Chairman of the Falkland’s legislature could be echoed word for word by our Chief Minister. Indeed statements this year by both Cameron and Hague suggest they support the wishes of Gibraltarians in the same way as residents of the Falklands to self determine their own future.

So may be 2013 is the year for a double whammy in support of democracy in Gibraltar and the Falklands and with it a devastating blow to the colonial ambitions of Spain and Argentina.

Of course to be meaningful the Gibraltar referendum should give Gibraltarians the option to choose to be ruled by Spain and even offer an Andorra-style future which should gain one vote. What is important is that once Gibraltar and the Falklands have spoken that Britain takes those decisions to the UN and demands they are honoured and respected by all member states and the organization’s own committees.