WHERE DOES GIBRALTAR GO FROM HERE?

The recent revelations in the Hain book coupled with the Brussels Process and rumours of other Conservative Government plotting with Spain tells us one simple fact: given the opportunity London would clinch a deal with Madrid over Gibraltar. That applies to whoever is in power and Cameron would snatch a deal as readily as Blair or Thatcher.

Let us take a look at this from London. There are at least one million Britons living in Spain or with second homes there. They pay taxes in Spain, many work for Spanish registered companies, others run businesses. Around the same number of Britons holiday in Spain each year; in many regions they top the tourist charts. Spain is Britain’s eighth largest trading partner and in 2011 exports were nearly eight billion pounds.

This means that when Whitehall looks at its interests with democratic Spain it is these statistics that loom large and not Gibraltar. In addition to that both are partners within the EU, both currently have centre right governments and both are members of NATO.

The days of Gibraltar’s strategic importance have largely gone and the Rock is no longer the bastion of democracy on the face of Franco’s Spain. Relations between London and Madrid are good but would be better if the Gibraltar issue could be solved.

I have no doubt that Britain will honour the pre-amble to the Constitution. In addition the ties that bind the UK and Gibraltar are very strong indeed. There is over 300 years of mutual history and institutional bonds including a shared monarch. However we are faced with two differing priorities: London would like a settlement with Spain (joint sovereignty would suit it fine) and Gibraltar has no intention of diluting its sovereignty: “no surrender!”

Every indication is that Gibraltarians wish to self govern their Rock whilst maintaining the link with Britain. What needs to be done now is for that policy to be agreed not by politicians but by the people and enshrined in a binding document. It should be a document that sets out the future for Gibraltar and how it intends to relate to Britain, the EU and the UN. It will be the will of the people endorsed by the people at a referendum.

Whether the Hain revelations are true or not the fact is that Caruana has constantly sent out messages to Spain that he is willing to discuss an Andorra style solution regardless of the fact the majority of Gibraltarians are not. He comes from the Palomo tradition and talks the Palomo talk. He has been happy for sovereignty to be on the table. As a democrat I believe he has every right personally, and I stress the personally, to do so. However when he did so as chief minister he should have realised that he gave hope to those in Madrid and London who desire a joint sovereignty accord for differing reasons. Furthermore he should have made it plain he spoke for himself and the two per cent who perhaps back such a solution but not the vast majority who would reject it out of hand: including most GSD supporters. In such delicate matters as sovereignty you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

That is why I say I believe there should be a debate amongst all Gibraltarians to define the future Gibraltar they want; how it will relate to Britain, Spain and its European neighbours. In essence it will be a political debate but it shouldn’t be clouded by party politics. It should be the will of the people and once set down represent the status quo that London and Madrid have to deal with.

TIME FOR GIBRALTARIANS TO DEBATE THEIR FUTURE

The furore over the chief minister’s remarks on an Andorra style (photo above) future for Gibraltar has had one useful purpose – it has opened up the debate on what future Gibraltarians want for their homeland.

Whether Caruana favours an Andorra model is neither here nor there. The decision will not be made by him or any other holder of his office but by the people of the Rock in a referendum. He like every other Gibraltarian will have one vote.

Yet it is time for Gibraltarians to decide what future they want for Gibraltar, not just for them, but their children and their children’s children.

It would help for instance if Gibraltarians knew what the status of the Rock is. Spain says it’s a British colony. Gibraltar has a new constitution which was heralded as taking the Rock beyond being a colony. Gibraltarians who know more about such things than I assure me no such move forward has taken place. Britain just mumbles. So first of all we need to know where Gibraltar stands before the Rock can take any step forward.

I am told, again by people who spend their time studying these runes that Gibraltar cannot be independent – it has to be tied to another larger entity. Gibraltar’s current future depends on its links with the EU. Gibraltar is not a member of the EU – it is a member by virtue of Britain being a member. Hence if Gibraltar broke that link it would be outside of the union.

If an independent Gibraltar then applied for membership its application would be blocked by Spain. Of course if Gibraltar joined with Spain on some sovereignty basis then it could maintain the EU link.

There are people on the Rock who see Gibraltar’s long term future in a federal EU. This would see member states such as Spain break down with regions such as Cataluña, the Basque region, Andalucía taking their place and at that table would be a seat for Gibraltar. Yet that is a long term bet.

So if Gibraltar can’t be totally independent – which sounds logical given its size is that of a small British town or large village – it needs to plot its future in partnership with somebody be it Britain, Spain or the EU.

As was demonstrated in 2002 Britain would be happy for Gibraltar to move to a joint sovereignty status with Spain or even possibly an exchange of full sovereignty. Britain and Spain are EU and NATO partners and the mutual interests of London and Madrid do not revolve around the Rock. As Spain’s foreign minister Trinidad Jiménez recently stated rows over Gibraltar have been going on for 200 years and are not going to spoil bilateral relations. It should also be taken in to account that the number of Britons living in Spain by far outnumbers those in Gibraltar. The emphasis has changed.

It is because Gibraltar is being marginalised in British Spanish relations that determining the path for the Rock’s own future is a priority. It won’t be done in the general election process because parties bidding for power will seek the solution that will secure the most votes rather than what is best for Gibraltarians over the long term. It is a debate for the people because it is their votes which will be required to make it happen.