WHY BARCELONA AND NOT LONDON MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Last week was not a good one for Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. First there was the train disaster in his native Galicia and second he has been ducking and diving over his involvement in the Barcenas corruption scandal. Then to make matter worse a letter was placed on his desk.

After months of speculation over the independence referendum in Cataluña, which Rajoy’s Government bitterly opposes,the region’s bid for self-determination is now formally on the table.

The Catalan president Artur Mas has written to Rajoy seeking to open the negotiations on an accord that would see Cataluña hold its referendum. Of course Rajoy knows well enough what Mas plans but it is only now it has been put in writing. That being the case Madrid will now have to make a formal response.

The scenario threatens to put the Spanish State in direct conflict with the Catalan Parliament whose MPs have voted by a majority to hold a referendum on independence. Indeed it was the central issue in the recent Cataluña general election with voters giving the go-ahead.

Although Cataluña has always had ambitions to be independent the current crisis started after a breakdown of talks between the Spanish and Catalan governments over a fiscal pact last autumn. As a result Mas now has a mandate to call the referendum as soon as possible.

Mas has called for immediate talks with the Spanish Government to open a dialogue and to negotiate an accord by which the people of Cataluña can celebrate the referendum as soon as possible with all the marks of legality.

Mas in his letter talks of the coming referendum in the UK which will see the people of Scotland asked whether they wish to remain in the Union or not. The Catalan leader sees distinct similarities between the two cases and of course in the UK the referendum process has been allowed by the British Government.

A number of other countries have also followed this path including some in the EU. Mas has called for the Catalan problem to be solved in the same way by the democratic will of the people in a legally binding referendum. 

All of this helps Gibraltar in a number of ways. First with the Catalans in open conflict with Madrid and a referendum held either legally, or more likely illegally, then the Spanish Government’s eyes will swivel east rather than south. Second other Spanish regions are likely to be emboldened by the Catalans to seek new relationships of their own with the State be they full independence or fuller autonomy. In other words we will start to see the disintegration of the Spanish State. Third, if the Spanish State is breaking up – with its components seeking the same rights and status as Gibraltarians – then Madrid also loses any pretence to a right to sovereignty over us.

What is currently a battle of views and words could soon ignite in to something more akin to what is being witnessed in Egypt and Turkey. There could be open protests and riots on the streets in Cataluña over the independence referendum and in wider Spain against the economic crisis and corruption. Elements in the Spanish armed forces have already hinted at intervention to preserve the State. A time bomb is ticking.

In the meantime whilst Britain’s staunch defence of Gibraltar is welcomed and is the corner stone of our security: it is events in Barcelona and not London that could be our eventual deliverance.

THE SPANISH STATE FACES DISINTEGRATION

The Spain of today is in a deep financial crisis. Rather than the country pulling together it is pulling apart. The core of Spain, still less than a year since it returned a Partido Popular government, is in revolt against Rajoy and his policies.

In the autonomous regions that revolt has gone a stage further with a stronger desire than ever to see a break with Madrid. Last week the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, met Rajoy in the Spanish capital determined to get a new deal for Cataluña. Not only did he leave empty handed it is likely he will call elections shortly that will in essence be a referendum on Cataluña’s links with Spain.

Under the Spanish Constitution Cataluña cannot hold a referendum to leave Spain. Neither can the Basque or any other region. However a constitution only holds good whilst it is accepted by the people. We have seen with the Arab Spring how by taking to the streets people have overturned governments and dictators. Make no mistake if the population of Cataluña, the Basque region, Galicia and other areas of Spain with their own distinct identity marched against the constitution and for independence Madrid would descend in to chaos: the Spanish State as we know it would cease to exist.

All of this is a very real possibility. The nation is already on the march against Rajoy and the Partido Popular because of his government’s handling of the economic crisis. They are angry at the high jobless levels especially amongst the young, the families loosing their homes and the cuts to education and the medical services. Add to that the widely held belief in Cataluña that the region is being unfairly discriminated against which fuels further the demand for its independence. Stir in the Basques, Galicians and other regions and you have an explosive mix.

This makes last week’s call by the socialist president of Andalucía, José Antonio Griñán, for a federal Spain all the more interesting. Speaking on Europa Press Televisión, Griñán called for the development of a federal Spain, co-operative, where all are equal before the law and at the same time full respect is shown for the nation’s diversity.

The Andalucía leader stated “I think that the Constitution, that is the fruit of consensus, is the road and the solution to our problems as well.” He wants to see the country’s Magna Cart changed so it now meets the realities of present day Spain as it did when it was first drawn up.

Griñán said Spain had the opportunity to construct a nation of autonomous regions, for a phase of co-operation that will lead directly to a federal model based on the objective of a place for all, where employment is the priority and which gives hope to all.

Whilst the radical Catalans and Basques want full on independence Griñán’s call is for a Spanish federation of independent regions. Needless to say both of these visions have the Partido Popular in panic because it is a centralist party and rather than cede power it would rather disband the regions with control returning to Madrid as in the days of Franco.

If Spain does disintegrate then it would work in Gibraltar’s favour. It is Spain that claims sovereignty over Gibraltar but if the Spanish State does not exist then there can be no claim. There can be no claim from Cataluña, the Basque region, Galicia, Valencia or even Andalucía. Any remaining claim from a rump “Spain” in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula would hardly ring true.

Hence the threat to the Partido Popular is that not only could it loose all the Spanish regions but also what it sees as its right to bully Gibraltar into submission. Gibraltar can easily build alliances with the separatist Basques, Catalans and so on: indeed the blocks already exist. It is in our interests to start this work sooner rather than later.

(Since the above article was written the secretary general of PSOE, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the former Minister of the Interior, has spoken in favour of a federal model for Spain in line with that found in Germany).