THE SCOTLAND QUESTION ANSWERED

In my article in Panorama on October 5 I told of how I got to talking to one young politician by the name of Hadleigh Roberts at the Labour Party Conference. He is a linguist and his skills saw him working in the Parti Socialiste offices in southern France. He was also a staffer on Axelle Lemaire’s campaign to be elected as the PS MP for the French overseas constituency, which stretches from the UK to the North Pole.  He is committed to Europe and spoke at conference on this theme.

I went on to say he asked me two questions that he had been putting to people he met. There is a possibility that after the referendum Scotland could leave the United Kingdom. If that is the case then treaties that are binding to the UK would not be valid for Scotland. This would mean if Scotland wished to be a member of the European Community it would have to apply for membership in its own right.

The first question was: would the UK government object to Scotland joining the EC?  The second question was this: would Spain block Scotland’s membership? Well, as I said, I never saw the second one coming but Hadleigh explained Spain might black ball Scotland’s application because it would not want the Scots to set a precedent for the Catalans or indeed the Basques making a similar application.

We will leave the first question aside but in response to the second my answer was I did not believe Spain would interfere in a political matter that revolved around the remainder of the UK and a newly independent Scotland. I was wrong.

I did not appreciate what a panic the UK’s decision to allow Scotland a referendum on independence in 2014 would cause amongst the Spanish Partido Popular Government in Madrid.

The Basque’s in their regional government elections the Sunday before last returned both the two Nationalists parties with huge majorities over PSOE and the Partido Popular. They want out. Next up on November 25 is the Catalan regional election which again the nationalists are expected to win. If they do, they will hold a referendum on independence next year.

Against this scenario Spain’s foreign minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, has been speaking out. He stated the “right to secession is not recognised in any of the constitutions of the EU” and hence neither the Basques nor the Catalans can follow Scotland’s lead and try to leave Spain. He also argues that any such move is against the UN Charter and EU Treaty. Spain’s premier Mariano Rajoy warned the Basques during their regional elections they would be isolated outside of Spain and the EU if they went independent: the same message has been delivered by his PP henchpeople to the Catalans.

Garcia-Margallo commented that in the UK sovereignty resided with Parliament and it was Parliament that had authorised that the Scottish people could leave the Union if they decided “to navigate their own course”. He added that a referendum held without the approval of the British Parliament would have been illegal and have had no effect on Europe. Spain’s Constitution does not allow for any such referendum.

Now comes the key bit of the Spanish Foreign Minister’s argument. He says that if Scotland opts for independence then it will be outside of the EU and have to go to the end of the queue for membership. To finally achieve that membership it will have to obtain the backing of all member states. Hence there will be no fast track for Scotland and by implication Spain would block any attempt for special treatment. In all likelihood Spain would veto Scotland’s EU membership as it would be terrified that independent Basque and Catalan states would attempt to follow in its footsteps.

This pitches Spain into the debate over Scottish independence. Madrid may not have anticipated the angry reaction this will generate from Edinburgh. Certainly an independent Scotland will not sit quietly by whilst the Partido Popular interferes in its future status. Also when the question of Scotland’s future membership of the EU is debated between now and 2014 expect the SNP to come out fighting against Madrid. Rajoy and the Partido Popular had a fight on their hands with the Basques and the Catalans: now they can add the Scots too and indeed may be the British Government.

THE SPANISH STATE FACES DISINTEGRATION

The Spain of today is in a deep financial crisis. Rather than the country pulling together it is pulling apart. The core of Spain, still less than a year since it returned a Partido Popular government, is in revolt against Rajoy and his policies.

In the autonomous regions that revolt has gone a stage further with a stronger desire than ever to see a break with Madrid. Last week the President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, met Rajoy in the Spanish capital determined to get a new deal for Cataluña. Not only did he leave empty handed it is likely he will call elections shortly that will in essence be a referendum on Cataluña’s links with Spain.

Under the Spanish Constitution Cataluña cannot hold a referendum to leave Spain. Neither can the Basque or any other region. However a constitution only holds good whilst it is accepted by the people. We have seen with the Arab Spring how by taking to the streets people have overturned governments and dictators. Make no mistake if the population of Cataluña, the Basque region, Galicia and other areas of Spain with their own distinct identity marched against the constitution and for independence Madrid would descend in to chaos: the Spanish State as we know it would cease to exist.

All of this is a very real possibility. The nation is already on the march against Rajoy and the Partido Popular because of his government’s handling of the economic crisis. They are angry at the high jobless levels especially amongst the young, the families loosing their homes and the cuts to education and the medical services. Add to that the widely held belief in Cataluña that the region is being unfairly discriminated against which fuels further the demand for its independence. Stir in the Basques, Galicians and other regions and you have an explosive mix.

This makes last week’s call by the socialist president of Andalucía, José Antonio Griñán, for a federal Spain all the more interesting. Speaking on Europa Press Televisión, Griñán called for the development of a federal Spain, co-operative, where all are equal before the law and at the same time full respect is shown for the nation’s diversity.

The Andalucía leader stated “I think that the Constitution, that is the fruit of consensus, is the road and the solution to our problems as well.” He wants to see the country’s Magna Cart changed so it now meets the realities of present day Spain as it did when it was first drawn up.

Griñán said Spain had the opportunity to construct a nation of autonomous regions, for a phase of co-operation that will lead directly to a federal model based on the objective of a place for all, where employment is the priority and which gives hope to all.

Whilst the radical Catalans and Basques want full on independence Griñán’s call is for a Spanish federation of independent regions. Needless to say both of these visions have the Partido Popular in panic because it is a centralist party and rather than cede power it would rather disband the regions with control returning to Madrid as in the days of Franco.

If Spain does disintegrate then it would work in Gibraltar’s favour. It is Spain that claims sovereignty over Gibraltar but if the Spanish State does not exist then there can be no claim. There can be no claim from Cataluña, the Basque region, Galicia, Valencia or even Andalucía. Any remaining claim from a rump “Spain” in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula would hardly ring true.

Hence the threat to the Partido Popular is that not only could it loose all the Spanish regions but also what it sees as its right to bully Gibraltar into submission. Gibraltar can easily build alliances with the separatist Basques, Catalans and so on: indeed the blocks already exist. It is in our interests to start this work sooner rather than later.

(Since the above article was written the secretary general of PSOE, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the former Minister of the Interior, has spoken in favour of a federal model for Spain in line with that found in Germany).

COPA DEL REY FINAL AND NO “SPANISH” TEAMS

On Friday evening Spain’s equivalent of the FA Cup, the Copa del Rey, should be played at the Vicente Calderón stadium in Madrid. I say should because at the time of writing the political authorities in the region of Madrid want the game postponed because of the poor state of the pitch. It was apparently damaged in a recent Coldplay concert.

Whether it goes ahead on Friday or at a future date no Spanish team will be involved. Instead we see the giants of Cataluña FC Barcelona take on the might of the Basque region, Athletic de Bilbao.

It is traditional for the Spanish monarch, King Juan Carlos, to attend the match and present the trophy. It is now almost a tradition too when teams from regions of Spain who want their independence to greet the presence of the king with abusive chants and banners.

Certainly that was the even case when the Spanish monarchy was popular in the country. Now with the corruption trial embroiling the king’s son in law, Iñaki Urdangarín, and the monarch being under fire himself for going on a holiday to shoot elephants (during which he injured himself) when his country is in dire straits could lead to even former loyal Spaniards hurtling abuse. ‘The King is a Dumbo’ might be an appropriate slogan.

Barcelona and Bilbao are not new comers to this trophy having won it 25 and 23 times respectively. The Madrid stadium will be packed with Basques and Catalans and although they are there to watch the beautiful game it is also a chance not to be missed to loudly underscore their people’s demands for nationhood on nationwide TV.

Our chief minister, Fabian Picardo, is a keen soccer fanatic but on this occasion I doubt whether he will be sharing a fish supper out of old copies of La Razón with Spanish dignitaries in the Royal Box. However make no mistake at this football fest Gibraltar will be the elephant in the room.

The decision by UEFA, albeit forced on it by the Court of Arbitration, to allow Gibraltar to go forward for election to the ranks of European soccer nations has put the cat amongst the pigeons in Madrid. Of course Spain objects to Gibraltar doing anything, be thankful breathing is allowed although Madrid will insist its Spanish air, but on this occasion the implications are far wider.

Spurred on by Gibraltar’s success with UEFA the action groups for Basque, Catalonian and Galician national teams wants Bilbao’s and Barcelona’s fans to back the cause in Madrid on Friday. The fans are supported by the separatist parties in the three currently autonomous Spanish regions who see having a national team as a symbol of nationhood.

In the past the Spanish FA, ordered by the Spanish Government, has made it clear that if Gibraltar joins UEFA it would boycott all international and European club competitions. Other UEFA nations have in the past backed Spain’s stance but the court ruling gives them the get out they were looking for.

I always understood that both FIFA and UEFA would act swiftly against any country where the government started calling the tune in football matters. That seems to not have been the case with Spain, at least in the past. Whilst the Spanish FA might withdraw its international teams would its club sides follow suit. Would Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Atletico Madrid, Bilbao and so on boycott the rich pickings of European leagues and cups just because Gibraltar had joined UEFA’s number? I very much doubt it: their fans would riot.

This leaves the Spanish government and football authority in a place they do not want to be. Their threats will no longer carry any wait, Gibraltar will be a UEFA footballing nation and worst of all the campaign to have Cataluña, Basque and Galicia national sides alongside the Spanish team will gather pace. I suspect as you read this Rajoy, King Juan Carlos and the Spanish FA bigwigs are busy digging up the Vicente Calderón pitch.